The
Saudi monarch followed this up last Friday with a speech
whose bluntness was atypical of the man. "Let the entire
world know," he proclaimed "that the people and government
of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia stood and still stand today
with our brothers in Egypt against terrorism, extremism and
sedition, and against whomever is trying to interfere in
Egypt's internal affairs." This was unusual, not only
because Abdullah was aiming his words at his other ally, the
United States, and the Gulf state's regional rival Qatar,
whom he accused of "fanning the fire of sedition and
promoting terrorism, which they claim to be fighting". It
was rare because the monarch, who prefers behind the scenes
diplomacy, was so explicit.
The
kingdom has backed its words with money, and oil. It has
already put together an $12bn (£7.7bn) aid package along
with the UAE and Kuwait which is four times as much as the
military and economic grants from the US and the EU combined
($1.5bn and $1.3bn respectively). On his return from meeting
the French president at the weekend, the foreign minister,
Saudi al-Faisal, vowed to compensate Egypt for any loss of
EU or US money. Barack Obama's impotence in the Middle East
is being paraded by the US's closest Arab military ally.
Prince Bandar has also been to Moscow.
Being on opposite sides of the civil war in Syria (the
kingdom is seeking the fall of Bashar al-Assad, who Russia
supports militarily) was no impediment to a productive
visit. Both sides agreed to keep the oil price high, found
common ground in their hatred for the Muslim Brotherhood,
whom top Russian Arabists in the ministry of foreign affairs
equate with Islamic extremists. Russia feels it has every
reason to fear political Islam, with a population of
indigenous Muslims from the Caucasus, which is rising as a
proportion of the Russian Federation's total population, and
expected to hit 19m or 14% of the population by 2020. "Are
you mad?" an MFA official told his US counterpart "to
support the guys with beards over the guys with ties?".
Why
has the kingdom, famed for its caution on the diplomatic
stage, put all its eggs in one basket, which, considering
the volatility in Egypt, remains fragile and unpredictable.
Who knows which side in Egypt will prevail, and if that is
so, why back the coup leader General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi so
publicly? Sisi thanked the kingdom in fulsome terms. He said
that the Saudi intervention was unprecedented since the Yom
Kippur 1973 war with Israel. Praise indeed.
For
Dr Maha Azzam, associate fellow of the Middle East and
North Africa programme at Chatham House, the kingdom's
fire-breathing support for the coup comes as little
surprise. Not only had they been astonished by Washington's
abandonment of the kingdom's closest regional ally in Hosni
Mubarak, a point they made very clear during his trial. They
had seen him replaced, at the polls, by the Brotherhood,
which challenged the kingdom's claim to be the protector of
Islam.
Azzam
said: "What they had was a lethal equation, democracy plus
Islamism, albeit under the Muslim Brotherhood. That was a
lethal concoction in undermining the kingdom's own
legitimacy in the long run. They know full well they do not
want democracy, but to have another group representing Islam
was intolerable."
King
Abdullah has good reason to fear the Brotherhood, which has
been getting unprecedented support in Saudi Arabia since the
3 July coup. Sympathy for Mohamed Morsi has filled Twitter
feeds in the country. Support for Morsi on social media has
its own emblem, a four-fingered salute, known as
the sign of Rabaa.
It is
one thing to upset the middle class and the intelligentsia,
but quite another to have the country's religious scholars
denounce you. A group of 56 of them did so, by issuing a
statement describing the events of 3 July as "unquestionably
a military coup and an unlawful and illicit criminal act".
The king has also been attacked in a sermon by a sheikh at
the al-Masjid al-Nabawi mosque in Medina, Islam's second
holiest site.
The
royal family have responded to the campaign they are facing
on social media by sacking a Kuwaiti TV preacher with
Brotherhood links. Tareq al-Suwaidan, who has more than 1.9
million Twitter followers, was told that there is no place
for those who carry deviant thoughts at the
Al Resalah channel.
But
this is a dangerous strategy. As president, Morsi resisted
calling his regional enemies out for the money and support
they gave to Egyptian opposition politicians, parties and
private television channels for good reason. Up to 2 million
Egyptians are employed as guest workers in the kingdom and
their remittances were important for an economy on its
knees. He feared that the Saudis would kick them out if he
accused them of undermining his presidency. However today,
Egyptian ex-pats are not the Brotherhood's problem or
responsibility. What could well follow is an unrestrained
campaign by its members to destabilise the Saudi and UAE
regimes.
Azzam
said: "For the US and EU, there is very little grey area.
Either you have authoritarian regimes, including Assad or
you have the Arab spring. The authoritarian regimes are
saying: 'If we use enough force, we can quell the tide of
democracy.' For Washington it means that there is no
regional player that can now mediate with the Egyptian
military. No one that can play the role of good cop."
The
battles lines have now been clearly drawn throughout the
Arab world. The military coup in Egypt, and Saudi support
for it, represents an attempt to turn the clock back, to
halt the wave of democratisation heralded by the toppling of
Arab dictators. It is unlikely to be the final word or
battle in what promises to be an epic struggle.
